Term Paper on "Terrorist Attacks"

Term Paper 10 pages (3907 words) Sources: 3 Style: Turabian

[EXCERPT] . . . .

Terrorist Attacks

An assessment of how a terrorist attack might be conducted using Weapons of Mass Destruction

The danger of a terrorist attack on American soil has been extensively reported and commented on in the media, especially after the events of 9/11. Many experts are of the opinion that a terrorist attack is "inevitable" at some stage in the future. This view is supported by the recent proliferation of nuclear weapons, especially after the fall of Communist Russia and there have been many reports of the sales of arms and even nuclear components on the black market.

However, commentators also point out that the construction and implementation of a fully - fledged nuclear device is still extremely difficult and the importation of components into a country like the Unites States with its stringent security regulation after 9/11, is a difficult task for the terrorists. As this paper will discuss, the most likely scenario for a major terrorist attack on this country would be to use a weapon of mass destruction that would be easy to create or assemble and that would go undetected by the security authorities. This requirement would suggest a "dirty bomb" or a readymade chemical or radiological device would be the most effective way for a terrorist or terrorist group to attack the United States, or any other large developed country. This discussion will also attempt to assess the various most likely targets and to look at alternative targets, other than those that are conventionally seen as the aim of the terrorist.

2. Possible scenarios

There are a number of possible scenarios that need to be considered in order to determine the most likely and feasible form of terrorist attack using weapons of mass destruction. The most common scenario, which is dealt with extensively in film and popular literature, is the attack by nuclear bomb. The threat of nuclear radiation in a city or residential area would be devastating. However this scenario, while possible, is presently highly unlikely due to the technical knowledge required and the problem of smuggling in components without being detected. Far more likely would be the use of a chemical or radiological bomb, commonly referred to as a "dirty nuke." This type of weapon would be less destructive, but in some circumstances could still inflict high casualties or contaminate areas, with psychological effects greater than the material damage.

Another possibly that should be borne in mind in assessing the various possibilities is that," Although a terrorist attack using a nuclear weapon cannot be ruled out, the most likely nuclear agent is radioactive dust dispersed to create maximum contamination of personnel and facilities."

An important aspect to consider is that while the common perception that a terrorist attack would come from outside the country, it should be remembered that a country like the United States has a long and dangerous history of domestic terrorism. As one study points out, "...Americans were responsible for about three-quarters of the 335 incidents between 1980 and 2000 that the FBI has classified as suspected or confirmed terrorism. "

An infamous example of domestic terror was the attack in 1995 on the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building. The building in Oklahoma City was bombed and 168 people died with more than 500 injured. The terrorist who perpetrated this crime was not from the Middle East but was an American citizen, Timothy McVeigh. The point that is being made is that there is a realistic threat of homegrown terrorism, and this in turn suggests that the weapons that such a terrorist would use would not necessarily be imported from outside the country but could be constructed in our own back yard - possibly from industrial materials that are freely available to the ordinary citizen.

While some claim that right - wing terrorism in the United States has decreased, yet others state that it still a relevant threat. Some commentators are of the opinion that domestic terror groups are in fact learning from and even emulating terrorist groups like al-Qaeda. "Experts say domestic terrorism is becoming more dangerous as groups adopt looser organizational structures similar to that of the al-Qaeda network, plan larger attacks, and consider turning to weapons of mass destruction."

For example, in 20003 a homemade hydrogen cyanide device, "...a green metal military ammo box containing 800 grams of pure sodium cyanide and two glass vials of hydrochloric acid" was sound in a small Texas Town. Joseph Krar was found to be in possession of sufficient sodium cyanide and hydrochloric acid to produce large quantities of hydrogen cyanide, which could have resulted in the death of thousands of people.

These incidents point to the fact that the materials used and the targets designated are often planned and instigated by terrorists already within the country. This in turn would suggest that components, chemicals and substances that are domestically available are more likely to be used the construction of a WMD rather than brought in from outside the country.

2.1. Weapons and materials

The type of weapons that could be used a potential terrorist will depend on the availability of the materials, their undetectably and the knowledge required to use them. As the above section points out, there are many possibilities and possible weapons that need to be considered in the question of a potential terrorist threat with WMD. The ideal weapon for the terrorist would be one is on that is small enough and easy to assemble and which will produce the desired effect - which is pain, destruction, loss of life, disruption of services and social life and the all - important psychological impact that a weapon of mass destruction can have. In other words, the weapon need not be as devastating as a full-scale nuclear explosion to achieve the terrorists' aims. The main aim of the terrorist is to sow panic and inflict psychological harm and facilitate a reduction of morale in the country. Therefore the choice of material used in the attack will to a large extent determine the target and the method of delivering the attack.

As suggested, the most likely scenario is the use of a homemade "dirty bomb." This refers to a radiological dispersion device or RDD. Many commentators are of the opinion that this is possibly the most likely weapon that would be used in an attack. In essence an RDD is a "....combination of conventional explosives and radioactive material designed to scatter dangerous and sub-lethal amounts of radioactive material over a general area."

The general public is not well aware of the difference between the conventional nuclear device and the "dirty nuke." In essence these low - grade radiological and nuclear devices are extremely dangerous in that they have not only the capability of killing people and disrupting communications and society, but can also distribute harmful radiation, which can contaminate large areas and decimate highly populated areas. What makes this device the most likely candidate as a weapon of mass destruction is its accessibility and the relative ease of use in which they can be made.

One scenario in which this type of bomb could be used is in a densely populated area like New York, where it could be detonated in a busy area like Grand Central. One estimate of such an attack is that approximately 500,000 people are killed and the U.S. suffers $1- trillion in direct economic damage. In another scenario a homemade nuclear bomb is detonated in a truck in a tunnel in Manhattan.

The blast would crater portions of the New York skyline, barbecue thousands of people instantly, condemn thousands more to a horrible death from radiation sickness and -- by virtue of being underground -- would vaporize many tons of concrete and dirt and river water into an enduring cloud of lethal fallout.

One of the central aspects that many experts mention is the comparative ease with which the material for such a bomb could be obtained. This material can be obtained from industry and chemical manufacturing. "Literally millions of radioactive sources are employed worldwide in medicine, industry and agriculture and many of them could be used to fabricate a dirty bomb." Another report on the "dirty bomb" states that while the initial explosion will not create the same devastation as a large-scale nuclear bomb, yet the effect will be long - lasting.

At first there will not be much of a wasteland, as the "hottest" area might be generating 50 mrem an hour, while at the fringes of the hot zone, it is one mrem an hour or less. Now you don't want to live in an area that is giving you an extra one mrem an hour. Even if you just work there, that's an extra 2,000 or so mrem a year. You have to clean the place up.... Where the terrorists win big time is when the public health people have a hard time convincing a terrified public that an additional.001 mrem an hour is "acceptable"

3. The attack: targets and implementation.

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