Term Paper on "Sweet Grass Cheese's Development and Growth"

Quoted Instructions for "Sweet Grass Cheese's Development and Growth" Assignment:

In a 4 page paper, respond to the following:

(1) Describe how their business has developed from the early days until today. Distinguish those components that were part of a planned effort, and those that were unanticipated.

(2) The article sheds some light on problems and opportunities that small businesses face. Discuss them with a particular emphasis on the interplay between family on one side, and the business aspects on the other side.

(3) Do you foresee problems in their future? How might they adapt their marketing strategy? Discuss.

Use and site the following articles as well as any others you may find:

Handcrafted CHEESE from Georgia? Ask the Wehner family if you're dubious . . . or better yet, sample the nationally acclaimed products made from their own goats and cows; [Home Edition]

REAGAN WALKER. The Atlanta Journal - Constitution. Atlanta, Ga.: Aug 5, 2004. pg. K.1

Abstract (Document Summary)

She found she had a knack for cheese making, though, and that they had pretty good milk, with a rich, distinguished flavor, to work with. [Desiree Wehner] began to plant the idea in Al's mind that because they had such good milk, they should consider expanding into cheese making. He finally agreed and in 2000, Desiree started making a few goat cheeses and selling to passers-by from a shed on the Sweet Grass farm a few minutes outside Thomasville.

To achieve a high degree of technical proficiency, Desiree hired Jean Marc Maisonnaire, a cheese maker from the Pyrenees in France, to come and work with her for a few months a couple of years ago. Much to her surprise, [*****ica Little] and her fiance (now husband) Jeremy Little expressed interest in moving from Atlanta to Thomasville about the same time. So Desiree asked Jeremy to join her while Maisonnaire was at the farm. Since then, Jeremy has taken the reins of the cheese making and *****ica has become the marketing and sales manager, allowing Desiree to oversee the goats and her toddling grandson (*****ica and Jeremy's son, Aiden).

Photo A goat at Sweet Grass Dairy / LOUIE FAVORITE / Staff Photo Desiree Wehner and daughter *****ica Little (above right) are passionate about the quality of their artisanal cheese --- logging the work hours to prove it. / LOUIE FAVORITE / Staff Photo Sweet Grass' Georgia Pecan Chevre is a soft-ripened cheese with a white rind studded with ground pecans. It's lately been available at the weekly Piedmont Park farmers market. / LOUIE FAVORITE / Staff Photo At Sweet Grass Dairy, near Thomasville, Juan Carrillo works with wheels of the award-winning Georgia Gouda. / LOUIE FAVORITE / Staff

Full Text (1895 words)

(Copyright, The Atlanta Journal and Constitution - 2004)

Thomasville ---

Good cheese --- really good cheese like the Wehner family makes at its Sweet Grass Dairy in South Georgia --- starts with good milk.

No, wait. It actually starts with good dirt.

In this case, the rich Georgia soil of the 480 acres of rolling green pastures and piney woods Al and Desiree Wehner own and tend to here. They nurture the land as they do their herds of cows and goats. Pastures are allowed to "rest" on a rotational schedule so herds don't pack the dirt too hard, preventing microorganisms from growing and reinvigorating the plant life.

The dirt supports the naturally fertilized grasses that feed the cows and goats that are allowed to graze rather then eat from grain bins in large sheds. They are milked only once or twice daily, thus producing milk that is more concentrated and complex than the standard.

From that milk comes phenomenal cheeses, such as the velvety rich Lumiere, a soft, semi-ripened goat-milk cheese that is layered and coated with French grapevine ash and molded in a heart shape. Or the Thomasville Tomme, a raw cow-milk cheese aged for more than two months until it is the color of straw but still soft in texture.

Cheeses that in the four short years of production have garnered more than a dozen national awards from the prestigious American Cheese Society (including a first place for the Lumiere this summer) and that found their way to restaurants and markets across the country, including such top-notch dining rooms as ***** Trotter's in Chicago, Norman's in Miami and Clyde's in Washington.

"Cheese from Georgia?" said *****ica Little, the Wehners' daughter and sales manager for the cheese business, the only one of its kind in the state. "I do hear that all the time."

Hobby to business

When Desiree started the business four years ago, she never thought she'd be selling her handmade farmstead cheeses to chefs and specialty stores across the country. Nor did she anticipate that what started as a kitchen hobby would grow into a $350,000-a-year business.

In Atlanta, Sweet Grass cheeses show up on the menus of such restaurants as Seeger's, MidCity Cuisine, the Food Studio, Woodfire Grill and Restaurant Eugene and in cheese shops at Star Provisions, Alon's and Whole Foods. And, this summer, the cheese has been available at least every other week at the Saturday farmers market in Piedmont Park.

Al and Desiree often make the four-hour trek from South Georgia to sell directly to the city shoppers in the park. There, they see the noses wrinkle at the whiff of the pungent, runny Velvet Rose (a white splat of semi-ripened cow-milk cheese) and hear the "ummms" when shoppers taste the earthy, nutty Georgia Pecan Chevre (a cube of soft-ripened goat-milk cheese with a rind coated in pecan chips).

"It is so gratifying to have people tell you to keep doing what you are doing," said Desiree of the Piedmont Park experience. "To have contact directly with people is part of our overall vision."

A change in plans

That vision was beyond the horizon when this couple met at the University of Georgia back in the late 1970s. He came from New York, she came from Florida, and both were studying dairy science with the goal of becoming veterinarians.

Yet dairy farming was Al and Desiree's destiny. For years, they managed and, at times, co-owned large dairy operations in Florida and South Georgia. In time, they tired of corporate farming, with large herds of cattle that spent more time on concrete than grass and required a great deal of care. They also found the whole enterprise less than desirable as a profession and as a way of life for the family, which grew to include three children.

So, in 1993, they created Green Hill Dairy on 340 acres near Quitman and switched to a New Zealand style of farming called rotational grazing. The idea is that animals are moved from pasture to pasture, rather than shed to shed, to eat grasses grown in soil that has been given the utmost attention.

They also started selling the Holsteins and buying Jersey cows and a few other breeds and slowly began to build their business. In 1995, they purchased another 140 acres, which is now home to the Sweet Grass Dairy and the cheese-making operation.

Talent emerges

Though the switch to biologically sustainable farming methods was a very conscious business and lifestyle decision for the Wehners, the move into the cheese business was not so much. Desiree said the first time she made cheese was for an educational project with her son, Kyle, whom she home schooled for one year.

"But truthfully, I'm lactose-intolerant and grew up on Velveeta, which I didn't like, so I never really thought about cheese," she said. Travels to Europe, where she enjoyed aged cheeses that don't have lactose, opened her mind. Then, at a dairy conference in California in 1998, she tried some fresh goat cheese and, "I couldn't believe how much I liked it." She returned from the meeting, purchased 13 goats and began experimenting in the kitchen, out of curiosity more than eyeing a business venture.

She found she had a knack for cheese making, though, and that they had pretty good milk, with a rich, distinguished flavor, to work with. Desiree began to plant the idea in Al's mind that because they had such good milk, they should consider expanding into cheese making. He finally agreed and in 2000, Desiree started making a few goat cheeses and selling to passers-by from a shed on the Sweet Grass farm a few minutes outside Thomasville.

"At this point, I was just learning about cheese. I didn't have a marketing plan. I didn't know that artisanal cheese was having this revolution," she said. "I just wanted to make good food and share it with others."

In fact, American artisanal cheeses --- those made by small producers using classic European techniques and, in some cases like the Wehner operation, on the same farm where the milk was produced - -- were enjoying rising popularity. And it's a trend still going strong. Though handmade artisanal and farmstead cheese still makes up a tiny proportion (exact figures unavailable) of the $2.9 billion annual cheese sales, the number of producers has mushroomed from just a few dozen in the 1990s to more than 200 across the country today.

Desiree sent a few samples of her cheeses to the American Cheese Society tasting panel in 2001 hoping to get some constructive feedback from judges. What she got was a third-place ribbon for her aged goat cheese. The next year, she sent more samples in and won five awards. "The wins were shocking to me," she said. Because of her relative inexperience, "I just knew it had to be the milk."

Spreading the word

The awards helped build word-of-mouth interest; so did their relationship with Raymond Hook, Atlanta's foremost cheese expert. When he first heard about the Wehners, he decided to pay them a visit, and he quickly agreed they were working with superior milk. But that has its own challenges.

"Cheese makers all over the world want consistency," said Hook, who has introduced the cheese to most of the fine-dining chefs in Atlanta and several across the country. "At Sweet Grass, they want what's natural. That means a Thomasville Tomme made from an early- lactation milk could be different from a late-lactation milk. So, technically, they have to be better cheese makers."

To achieve a high degree of technical proficiency, Desiree hired Jean Marc Maisonnaire, a cheese maker from the Pyrenees in France, to come and work with her for a few months a couple of years ago. Much to her surprise, *****ica and her fiance (now husband) Jeremy Little expressed interest in moving from Atlanta to Thomasville about the same time. So Desiree asked Jeremy to join her while Maisonnaire was at the farm. Since then, Jeremy has taken the reins of the cheese making and *****ica has become the marketing and sales manager, allowing Desiree to oversee the goats and her toddling grandson (*****ica and Jeremy's son, Aiden).

Keeping up with orders

The business has grown far beyond selling to passers-by. In fact they no longer sell from the farm, the shed has become a 3,300- square-foot plant and there are three additional employees. Last year, they sold 6,700 cubes of Pecan Chevre, 4,500 pounds of Georgia Gouda and 4,200 pounds of Thomasville Tomme.

On a recent day, all the signs of a thriving family operation were apparent. While Jeremy oversaw that day's production of Clayburne cheddar, moved cheeses into aging rooms and oversaw the day's shipments, *****ica was answering a phone that was constantly ringing. An express order came in from an Atlanta caterer; then a weekly order from a seller at a farmers market in St. Augustine, Fla., and then a call that demanded a huddle. Fresh Market, a specialty grocery chain, wanted a large order. Then Jeremy, *****ica and Desiree considered what it would take to meet the deadline --- essentially a lot of overtime --- and decided to go for it.

"I never considered myself to have tons of energy, and I wasn't used to being in a job environment that changes every five minutes," said Jeremy, a psychology major who worked in several Atlanta restaurants before going to Sweet Grass. "But here, you get motivated. The adrenaline gets going. This is major league and you better bring your bat to the plate."

Jeremy also said he never thought he'd get to travel and eat in fine-dining restaurants like ***** Trotter's, as a cheese maker. "We work really hard, but we do get the occasional perk," he said.

Indeed, the challenge may be keeping the work at a manageable level. Shaun Doty, chef of MidCity Cuisine, predicted that demand for handmade products from local producers like Sweet Grass is only going to grow. Doty, who consistently offers Sweet Grass cheeses at his restaurant, took the time to visit the cheese makers in Thomasville.

"I'm impressed by the sacrifices they make. They really work hard," said Doty, whose personal favorite Sweet Grass cheese is the Lumiere. "You've got to thank God you have people like this who are committed to their craft, and I think it's really important that chefs, and consumers, support them."

Hook, who is familiar with cheese makers across the country, agreed. "I often have to remind Jeremy that he is the best that I have seen at this," Hook said. "There are really very, very few places like Sweet Grass, where the cheese begins with the soil, the grass, the animal care, and then the cheese making goes to the point that it is spectacular."

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This article points out how one company have sought out ways to market their many product to find a niche market. An optional reading to support your evaluation of this case assignment is James Cobb's article from The New York Times, Oct 23, 2003 called "Niche mania" (available in Proquest) for a further discussion of the many combinations offered to consumers.

G.M.'s full-size truck family includes Chevrolet and GMC pickups in a head-spinning array of combinations -- different cab sizes, wheelbase lengths, cargo beds, engines and transmissions, light-service or heavy-duty versions, trim ranging from vinyl-plain to gentleman's-club plush. And that same truck platform supports a herd of big Chevy, GMC and Cadillac S.U.V.'s, as well as the smaller, gentler-driving Hummer, called the H2, and the Avalanche and Cadillac Escalade EXT -- essentially sport utilities with pickup beds.

In the auto industry, combination vehicles like these are called ''crossovers,'' and they are red-hot. There are combination car-S.U.V.'s like the Acura MDX and Toyota Highlander; minivan-S.U.V.'s like the Buick Rendezvous and the yet-to-arrive Chrysler Pacifica; and car-pickups including the Subaru Baja, which looks like a shrunken Avalanche. With its retractable roof, the sporty Chevy SSR, due out early next year, could be called a combination roadster-pickup. The Porsche Cayenne is a sports car-sport utility.

Nor has the plush [LINCOLN Blackwood] pickup helped Lincoln in its continuing attempts to redefine itself. The luxury division of Ford Motor, Lincoln struck gold in 1998 with its huge Navigator sport utility, forcing Cadillac to play copycat. But the $53,000 pickup version sold so poorly that production was quickly canceled in record time. The Blackwood's high style made it almost useless as a truck. A hinged, power-operated lid over its pickup bed, for instance, impressed passersby but limited the size of any items the truck might carry, and the pickup bed's gleaming stainless-steel lining was vulnerable to shifting cargo.

Full Text (3986 words)

Copyright New York Times Company Oct 23, 2002

WHEN Janis Joplin implored the Lord for a Mercedes-Benz, no further elaboration was necessary. At the time, three decades ago, the Mercedes was a symbol in this country of precise engineering, exacting quality and exclusivity. The cars came in four basic sizes, in about a dozen variations, all of them expensive. To most Americans, buying a Benz required divine intervention.

But like other automakers who have expanded their reach by moving upscale or down-market or both, even Mercedes has scrambled its mix. Today, a modestly successful blues belter can probably swing the monthly lease payments on a C230 Sports Coupe, which at $25,000 and up costs no more than certain Honda Accords. Sport utility vehicles bearing the Mercedes three-pointed star shuttle junior-hockey players through middle-class suburbs. A would-be Mercedes buyer has to choose among nearly 40 distinct models in 9 car and truck lines, with more on the way.

Mercedes is hardly alone in expanding its reach. After the small BMW 1 Series arrives in 2004, its dealers will offer nearly three dozen models, beginning barely above $20,000. American and Japanese manufacturers -- indeed, the British, South Koreans and Swedes, too -- are also offering far more vehicles across much broader price spreads than ever before. Automotive News, a trade publication, counted 1,314 specific vehicle models in the United States for 2002, an increase of 42 percent in five years.

This abundant supply is driven by customer demand for more and more variety, as Americans treat automobiles as fashion accessories and image enhancers. And after years of dreary sameness, individual automakers are so eager to expand their turf that they are working overtime to dream up new market niches that they can fill.

''The car industry is really a fashion business, more than ever before,'' said Christopher Cedergren, an industry analyst with NexTrend, of Thousand Oaks, Calif. He said that Americans ''wear'' their cars, and that ''customers are fickle, and they are going to go with the latest craze.''

This fragmentation is taking automakers to places where they have never been, and until recently would never have thought of going. Volkswagen, whose very name means ''people's car,'' is on the verge of offering a huge luxury sedan, the Phaeton, with a price approaching $100,000. Porsche, a name synonymous with fast, expensive rear-engine sports cars, is bringing out a sport utility, albeit one that can reach 165 miles an hour. (In the past, Porsches went off-roading mainly when the drivers' skills failed to match the cars' high-speed abilities.) Although General Motors executives haughtily insisted a few years ago that Cadillac would never make a truck, G.M.'s luxury division is putting the final touches on its fourth utility vehicle, the SRX.

Car companies are not just expanding their reach, they are slicing and dicing their cars and trucks to fit ever narrower niches where they hope to find ever more buyers.

If you are a 22-year-old mountain biker, Nissan has an Xterra for you. If you are 50-something and want to recapture lost youth, you might like a Ford Thunderbird that reminds you of the cool convertible your uncle bought when you were 11. If you are one of the world's 8,000 titans of capitalism with more than $30 million in ''investable assets,'' you might like the ultraluxurious Maybach in the $300,000 to $400,000 range. (Easy-payment plans are not available.)

If consumers find all this confusing, they can be excused; the automakers themselves often seem unsure of what their brands stand for in a mixed-up market where change is constant, cars can be trucks and trucks can be cars and the future is as murky as a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude. Not long ago, the quintessential Cadillac was a bloated, baroque Sedan de Ville, but with dealers selling trim European-style sedans, fancy pickups and, soon, luxury roadsters, what image does the Cadillac name conjure up today?

The other force behind the trend is enduring overcapacity -- auto plants around the world can produce 20 million more vehicles this year than consumers are likely to buy. This increases competition in the market's hot spots -- like $20,000 family sedans, $30,000 midsize ''near luxury'' cars or $40,000 sport utilities. This is pushing automakers in opposite directions: adding more models in higher price ranges, where profits are larger, and trying to lure younger, less affluent customers with cheaper models.

Joseph Phillippi, president of AutoTrends Consulting in Short Hills, N.J., said that the approximately 30 companies selling cars in the United States were all aiming to increase their share of a mature market that has been growing, on average, only about half a percent a year. ''What we are seeing is a continual effort on the part of all competitors to come up with unique, different ideas.''

There's a technological angle, too: much of the proliferation stems from the automakers' increasing skills at adapting vehicle platforms, which is the foundation of a car or truck design, to a wide variety of models of various sizes and body styles. (The basic Ford F-Series pickup comprises 118 models, by Automotive News's reckoning.)

While it is nothing new for automakers to play Mr. Potato Head by sticking on different grilles and nameplates -- ''badge engineering'' in industry parlance -- the adaptations go beyond restyling a Buick Regal and calling it a Pontiac Grand Prix. Increasingly, the DNA of a car is injected into a truck, or vice versa, in design studios that dabble in automotive genetic engineering.

Everybody Wants a Truck

Nowhere is transplantation more obvious than in the world of light trucks, including the ubiquitous sport utility vehicle. S.U.V.'s used to be niche vehicles, like early Jeeps, that were designed for the fairly small universe of people who truly did work or played off the beaten path. Those who did not usually found them too rugged, slow and uncomfortable for regular use on paved roads.

Now, light trucks make up the majority of new vehicles that are sold in the United States, and the segment has evolved into a world of niches. Automotive News counts 769 truck models on the market, compared with 545 cars.

G.M.'s full-size truck family includes Chevrolet and GMC pickups in a head-spinning array of combinations -- different cab sizes, wheelbase lengths, cargo beds, engines and transmissions, light-service or heavy-duty versions, trim ranging from vinyl-plain to gentleman's-club plush. And that same truck platform supports a herd of big Chevy, GMC and Cadillac S.U.V.'s, as well as the smaller, gentler-driving Hummer, called the H2, and the Avalanche and Cadillac Escalade EXT -- essentially sport utilities with pickup beds.

Like its main competitors, G.M. is playing three-dimensional chess. There is value in occupying a space, if only to keep a rival from landing there. Being first in a new niche with a new type of vehicle like the Avalanche means you have the market to yourself until the competition catches up. Meanwhile, you define the niche and play to your strengths.

Trucks in general, and S.U.V.'s in particular, have kept Detroit booming even as the Big Three have given up more than half of the passenger-car market to foreign rivals. But the Japanese are closing in.

Toyota, for instance, offers five S.U.V.'s, or car-based sport utility wagons, and its Lexus division sells three more. Jim Press, the executive vice president of Toyota Motor Sales USA, recently hinted that three more models might be coming, along with some lower-volume niche utilities.

''There's no end to the number of S.U.V. cues you can have,'' he said. ''Cells of customers are attracted to specific products, as opposed to products that are one-size-fits-all.''

Crossing Over

In the world's automotive capitals, imitation is the sincerest form of competition. When one company strikes gold in a new niche, rivals show up like forty-niners to stake their own claims.

Thus, there are currently more than a dozen roadster models, following the path of the Mazda Miata. The Volkswagen Beetle's phenomenal return inspired other retro favorites: the Chrysler PT Cruiser with its Jimmy Cagney style; the Mini Cooper, a flashback to London in the mod 60's; and the reborn two-seat T-Bird.

Subaru set off the stampede into cars that look tough but ride tender by raising the body of its Legacy station wagon and adding sport-utility trim like plastic-covered lower body panels. Presto! The car was reborn as a pseudo-S.U.V. called the Outback, which played on Americans' fascination with all things Australian in the wake of ''Crocodile Dundee.'' Sales soared and more Outbacks were created, based on other models and body styles.

Volvo took note, and turned a version of its V70 wagon into the Cross Country; Audi transformed its A6 Avant into the Allroad.

In the auto industry, combination vehicles like these are called ''crossovers,'' and they are red-hot. There are combination car-S.U.V.'s like the Acura MDX and Toyota Highlander; minivan-S.U.V.'s like the Buick Rendezvous and the yet-to-arrive Chrysler Pacifica; and car-pickups including the Subaru Baja, which looks like a shrunken Avalanche. With its retractable roof, the sporty Chevy SSR, due out early next year, could be called a combination roadster-pickup. The Porsche Cayenne is a sports car-sport utility.

Quite often, the aim of these crossovers is to create a new niche -- a specialized product that will make customers say, ''Why didn't they think of that before?''

Cars for the Young and Restless

Another crossover vehicle, the Pontiac Aztek, illustrates -- none too prettily -- the pitfalls of trying to change a tiger's stripes. Designers' attempts to hide the Aztek's minivan origins simply made it look bizarre, and its sales have been disappointing despite its innovative interior features. These include a removable center console that doubles as a picnic cooler; a cargo floor full of pop-up-storage modules; stereo controls in the rear compartment; and an optional tent that transforms the Aztek into an impromptu motel room. So, the Aztek remains alone in a niche that might be called ''crossover minivan-based vehicle for partying and sleeping.''

The Aztek also illustrates how designers are searching for cars that will press the buttons of the echo boom generation. This group of 70 million potential customers, currently aged 8 to 25, represents the largest demographic bulge since the baby boomers. But market researchers say echo boomers will be tough customers, demanding and fickle, with an independent streak and an aversion to the usual marketing campaigns.

With them in mind, Toyota -- whose average customer is 45 -- has gone so far as to create a new division in this country, called Scion. The first Scions will go on sale next year in dedicated areas within Toyota dealerships. (Toyota's experiment in selling youth-***** cars in Japan has been sobering; after an initial burst of interest, sales fell short of expectations.)

What do youngsters want? Many designers think they want a box that moves, with a lot of room for their friends and their possessions. So, there will be a boxy Scion, and Honda is thinking along those lines with its new Element, which company executives have characterized as a ''dorm room on wheels.'' A box with straight sides and double doors that open from the center to create a grand, unobstructed opening, the Element's interior is cavernous, especially if the rear seats are folded up against the wall.

Nissan and Mazda, among others, have also displayed design studies for ''box cars.'' Sporty coupes with punishing back seats and dinky trunks, the favored design of young people in the 60's and 70's, will not do.

Extra Frosting, for a Price

Their numbers might not be great, but buyers of sporty cars are still around, and these enthusiasts are coveted customers, on the theory that their relatives, friends and neighbors seek them out for car-buying advice. In many cases, they are willing to pay substantially extra for a little more performance -- and the status that a special-edition car can confer. The M5 badge on a BMW may not mean anything to Aunt Bertha, but gearhead cousin Vinnie knows that the car has a 394-horsepower V-8, a race-tuned suspension, a $70,000 sticker price and a long waiting list.

For years, BMW has produced low-volume cars like the M5 through its Motorsport division, and Mercedes has done so through its AMG operation. Both units ''tune'' conventional cars for exceptional performance, substituting brawny engines, brakes and suspension parts, along with special trim and nameplates.

Other import brands have jumped in with high-caffeine variants of their cars. In Detroit, Ford's Special Vehicle Team, known as S.V.T., has won raves with its high-performance tweaking. In its hands, an F-150 pickup became the SVT Lightning, which will take a cowpoke around the ranch in record time. The Focus SVT is an economy car transformed, Cinderella-style, into a quick, nimble Euro-style sports machine.

G.M. and Chrysler are setting up their own tuning divisions. One of the first products of G.M.'s performance unit will be the Silverado SS, a 345-horsepower pickup that borrows its initials from those imprinted on Chevy muscle cars of the 60's.

The Japanese are thinking fast, too. The Impreza WRX, a version of a Subaru used in rally racing overseas, has been a huge hit among civilians, and Mitsubishi also plans to import a rally car.

The Image Is Everything

The ultimate niche vehicles are ''halo'' cars, distinctive, limited-production vehicles designed to excite the public, draw shoppers into showrooms and cast a glow over a company's more mundane models. Ford is heavily promoting the return of its GT40, an updated street version of a legendary 60's racecar, and Chevy has gone further back for inspiration, to its 1949 pickup, in designing its jaunty SSR sport truck.

Sometimes the strategy works, sometimes not. The Viper, a sledgehammer of a muscle car with a V-10 engine, helped to give a gutsy, sporty image to the entire Dodge line. But some previous attempts, like the limited-run Cadillac Allante of a decade ago, fell flat.

Halo cars alone cannot invigorate otherwise boring car lines, said Mr. Cedergren, the NexTrend analyst. The Prowler, a crowd-stopping reinterpretation of a custom street rod, couldn't save Chrysler's Plymouth brand from extinction.

Nor has the plush Blackwood pickup helped Lincoln in its continuing attempts to redefine itself. The luxury division of Ford Motor, Lincoln struck gold in 1998 with its huge Navigator sport utility, forcing Cadillac to play copycat. But the $53,000 pickup version sold so poorly that production was quickly canceled in record time. The Blackwood's high style made it almost useless as a truck. A hinged, power-operated lid over its pickup bed, for instance, impressed passersby but limited the size of any items the truck might carry, and the pickup bed's gleaming stainless-steel lining was vulnerable to shifting cargo.

Sometimes, the car stars that burn brightest turn cool the fastest. New Beetles literally stopped traffic in 1998, but now they seem nothing special, and sales have plunged. VW has added more variations to revive interest, including a speedy Turbo Beetle; a convertible is due out soon. The PT Cruiser is on the same slope; Chrysler is adding a PT Turbo and a convertible to perk up interest.

Luxury for Everyone

Like designer clothing, automobiles with luxury labels aren't just for the rich anymore. The greatest growth in car and truck sales has been among high-end brands.

But since the common econobox comes with features that were once found only in luxury cars -- air-conditioning, remote-control locks, CD players, power windows -- what is a luxury car today?

Often, the distinction is in the name. A top-of-the-line Toyota Camry XLE is pretty much the same car as a Lexus ES 300, which costs $6,000 more. But the cars are categorized differently: the Camry is a midsize family sedan, and the ES 300 is an ''entry luxury,'' or ''near luxury'' sedan. This category, with prices from the high $20,000's to around $40,000, is fiercely competitive, crowded with models from most automakers.

Instant gratification is the theme in this market. People who might have once said, ''Someday, I am going to drive a Jaguar,'' now can, with X-Type leases of $399 a month.

It was pressure from Japanese luxury brands like Lexus in the early 90's that pushed Mercedes into the mass market. Instead of designing and engineering its cars to the highest of standards, and charging premium prices for them, the company started to design its cars so that they would sell at target prices, as volume manufacturers do.

Prices of Mercedes became much more competitive as sales jumped, but at the expense of some prestige. The company's ranking in quality surveys started to fall, particularly after the arrival of the M-Class sport utility in 1997.

As Mercedes and other luxury imports have moved down the price scale, they are meeting other brands, including the South Koreans, trying to move up. Hyundai, which has transformed itself from a joke to a juggernaut, has successfully expanded from subcompacts to a range of cars (and a utility wagon) that tops out in the upper $20,000 range.

In a tongue-in-cheek comparison test in its March issue, Automobile magazine pitted a Mercedes C320 Sports Coupe against a comparably priced Hyundai XG 350 sedan. The larger, more extravagantly equipped Korean car held its own.

It is no longer lonely for the exclusive brands at the other extreme of the luxury car market, where more than half a dozen companies are hoping to compete with cars priced from $150,000 to $600,000 and more. Aside from the Mercedes Maybach, new ultraluxury or superexotic cars are coming from Volkswagen's Audi, Bentley, Bugatti and Lamborghini subsidiaries; from a Rolls-Royce that will soon be under BMW's control; and from Ferrari, whose $700,000 Enzo is essentially a limited-edition Formula One racecar certified for public roads.

As Many Models as Customers?

Looking ahead, people in the industry and those who watch it expect even more choices for consumers. ''The trend is toward lower volume and more niche-***** products,'' said Mr. Cedergren of NexTrend. ''People are still very self-centered and image-conscious.''

Jim Hall, an analyst with AutoPacific, a market research firm in Southfield, Mich., expects the time-tested sedan to remain popular, along with what he calls ''image compacts'' -- small cars like the Toyota Matrix that are packaged in new configurations with different features. And, he predicts, ''there will be lots of permutations of things that people will call S.U.V.'s, but they aren't'' -- cars wearing costumes.

Advances in technology may result in more variations, too. Already the Honda Civic Hybrid, with both a gasoline engine and electric motor, is sold alongside several models of gasoline-only Civics, and other manufacturers are planning hybrid versions of several vehicles. But if hybrid technology pans out, Mr. Hall says, ''it simply becomes another choice,'' like the engine options on today's cars.

When G.M. tunes its crystal ball further, it sees hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars that would have their operating systems embedded in a platform that looks something like a giant s*****board. The car's body would attach to the platform the way a laptop computer slides into a docking station, making it easy to switch from one body style to another -- letting owners plug in a roomy wagon to take the children to camp or a sporty convertible for a sunny Sunday drive.

Mr. Phillippi of AutoTrends said that such futuristic ideas were actually proposed decades ago. ''It's an interesting concept,'' he said. ''But that would be a very expensive proposition. Where do you store the bodies? Or do you go to a body-exchange depot?''

Any product takes on more forms as it matures, Mr. Hall said, as those who sell it try to set it apart in a crowded marketplace. But ultimately, the consumer decides how many versions are appropriate.

Mr. Hall draws an analogy to cable television. ''What is the right number of channels to offer?'' he asked. ''The correct answer is one -- the channel that I want to watch.''