Research Paper on "Assessment on the Cause of Runway Incursions"

Research Paper 5 pages (2135 words) Sources: 5 Style: APA

[EXCERPT] . . . .

Table 1 t-test for statistically significant difference in runway incursions between 2014 and 2015

2015

2014

Mean

Variance

138695.6

98990.33

Observations

4

4

Pearson Correlation

0.982423

Hypothesized Mean Difference

0

df

3

t Stat

0.584727

P (T<=t) one-tail

0.2999

t Critical one-tail

2.353363

P (T<=t) two-tail

0.5998

t Critical two-tail

3.182446

This is a one-tailed test, as the aim is to determine whether or not there has been an increase, with the hypothesised mean difference being zero. The t statistic for the one-tailed tested 0 .584727, and the critical statistic is 2.353363. Therefore, although there does appear to be a difference, according to the statistical testing, as the test statistic is below the critical value, the null hypothesis can be accepted, and there is no statistically significant increase in the number of runway incursions, with a 29.99% probability that these results have been gained by chance, which does not satisfy the required 95% level of certainty to reject the null hypothesis.

5. Conclusions

The primary research undertaken a statistical analysis different causes of runway incursions supports the findings identified in literature review demonstrated that human error is to blame. However, the statistical test clearly identifies pilot deviation as the main cause. Based on these findings, maybe argued that if strategies are to be put in place to reduce runway incursions, then it is pilot deviation that should be prioritised. This may be particularly important if the ideas of Torres et al., (2011), implemented, with programs to increase environmental awareness.

Interestingly, although the research indicated there was an increased level of runway incursions into thousand fifteen compared to 2014, a statistical test failed to prove this was statistically significant, indicating the problem may not be escalating at the rate perceived by some industry. However, future research may benefit from examining the results over a longer period of time, in order to undertake a regression analysis which may indicate whether there is a significant trend or pattern in place. In an ideal world, the research would have indicated there was a decrease in runway incidences, rather than simply no change. Therefore, it is apparent more measures need to be taken, and the results of this paper help to identify the potential priorities for action, based on pilot deviation.

References

Cardosi, K. & Yost, A. (2001). Controller and pilot error in airport operations: A review of previous research and analysis of safety data (Report No. DOTVNTSC-FAA-00-21). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation. (U.S. DOT Report No. DOT/FAA/AR-00/51).

Chang, Y, Wong, K, (2012), Human risk factors associated with runway incursions, Journal of Air Transport Management, 24, 25-30

DiFiore, A. & Cardosi, K. (2006). Human factors in airport surface incidents: An analysis of pilot reports submitted to the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) (Report No. DOT-VNTSC-FAA-06-14). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Transportation. (U.S. DOT Report No. DOT/FAA/AR-06/5).

FAA, (2015a), National Runway Safety Plan, retrieved 8th November 2015 from www.faa.gov/go/nrspl

FAA, (2015b), Runway Safety, Runway Incursions, retrieved 9th November 2015 from http://www.faa.gov/airports/runway_safety/news/runway_incursions/

FAA, (2015c), Runway Incursion Totals by quarter FY2015 vs. FY2014, retrieved 9th November 2015 from http://www.faa.gov/airports/runway_safety/statistics/year/?fy1=2015&fy2=2014

Jones, D, (2000), Runway Incursion Prevention System-Demonstration and Testing at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, Digital Avionics Systems, 2001. DASC. 20th Conference, 1, 1-11

Satish, K Vegula, Sudesh, K Kashyap, Shantha Kumar, N (2013) Automatic detection of runway incursions using on-board sensors. Project Report. CSIR-NAL, CSIR-NAL, Bangalore

Shonefeld, J, Moller, D, (2012), Runway Incursion Prevention Systems: a Review of Runway Incursion Avoidance and Alerting System Approaches, Progress in Aerospace Sciences, 51, 31-49

Strove, S, Blom, H, Bakker, B, (2006), Safety Risk Impact Analysis of an Safety Risk Impact Analysis of an ATC Runway Incursion Alert System, retrieved 9th November http://publish.eurocontrol.int/eec/gallery/content/public/documents/conferences/2006_Barcelona/Stroeve_Eurocontrol_Safety_R_and_D_2006_Stroeve_Blom_Bakker_1.0.pdf

Saunders, M., Lewis, P., & Thornhill, A. (2012). Research Methods for Business Students. London: Pearson.

Torres, K R, Metscher, D S, Smith. M, (2011),… READ MORE

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