Research Proposal on "Residual Effects of Global Warming"

Research Proposal 14 pages (3346 words) Sources: 12 Style: ChicagoAugust 11, 2017

[EXCERPT] . . . .

Residual Effects of Global Warming and the Loss of the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf

Island nations such as Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and the Seychelles all face uncertain futures due to climate change that could one day threaten their very existence. Morgan ORourke (2012)

Introduction

The vast majority of climatologists agree that the evidence indicates the earth is warming, and the process is taking place faster than most experts thought possible. While some countries such as Russia will benefit from a warming climate by making vast areas more suitable for agriculture, the global warming picture is much grimmer for others, including coastal regions of the United States. Moreover, the residual effects of global warming such as rising sea levels threaten the survival of several Pacific islands, including Tuvalu, a West Pacific nation whose peak height rises just 5 meters over sea level, could be uninhabitable within 50 years. A similar fate could also await the Maldives, the Marshall Islands and the Kiribati islands, perhaps as early as mid-century. While the debate over the precise cause continues, a direct potential consequence of global warming will also be the loss of the valuable exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and the Continental Shelf. To determine the current facts, this paper reviews the literature to provide a brief overview of global warming followed by an analysis concerning its effects on low-lying island nations such as the Kiribati islands, the Maldives, and the Marshall Islands. Finally, a summary of the research and important findings concerning the residual effects of global warming and their future implications for the 5 million people living on these islands are presented in the conclusion.

Review and Analysis

Overview of global warming

While it remains unclear whether natural or anthropogenic sources are the primary cause of global warming, most scientists believe that humans are largely responsible for the increase in the earths surface temperature since the dawn of the Industrial Age as shown in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1. Global surface temperatures: 1880 to 2000

Source: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GISSTemperature/Images/giss_ temperature.gif

What is known for certain is that sea levels are rising and low-lying coastal regions and islands are vulnerable today. In this regard, ORourke emphasizes that, Regardless of the cause, however, ice melt and the expansion of warming oceans, coupled with increased storm surge flooding, could put anyone who lives within four feet of high tide underwater by 2030.[footnoteRef:2] Some of the findings from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations \"State of the Climate in 2016\" report also make the severity of the threat clear, including most especially the following: [2: Morgan ORourke (2012, May). Rising Seas, Rising Threat. Risk Management, vol. 59, no. 4, p. 12.]

Global land surface temperatures in 2016 were the highest in 137 years of record keeping;

Sea surface temperatures were also at their highest;

Sea levels were at record highs in the 24 years that satellite record keeping has been used; and,

Greenhouse gas marks rose faster than any year and carbon dioxide readings were above a 400 parts per million average for the year for the first time.[footnoteRef:3] [3: Steve Almasy (2017, August 10). Climate report: Hottest year, highest greenhouse gas marks, record sea levels. CNN. [online] available: http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/10/us/noaa-2016-climate-change-report/index.html, p. 3.]

These findings are supported by scientific evidence that clearly shows sustained increases in the globally averaged carbon dioxide concentration levels in the earths atmosphere as shown in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Globally averaged carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere: 1980-2010

Source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG4kPkQW0AA2GQv.jpg

Although some researchers believe that the residual effects of global warming will not have this dire effect until mid-21st century or perhaps even later, there is a virtual consensus among the scientific community that sea levels are rising and it is only a matter of when the tipping point will be reached when these regions become uninhabitable.[footnoteRef:4] These effects have already been detected by climatologists who report that sea levels in 2016 were the highest in recorded history as shown in Figure 3 below. [4: Richard S. Lindzen (2016, June). Global Warming: The Science in Three Nut Shells. New Criterion, vol. 34, no. 10, p. 12.]

Figure 3. 2016 average sea level compared to 1981-2010 averages

Source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DG4mEVSXcAAhhSo.jpg

During his tenure, President Barack Obama consistently cited global warming as the biggest threat facing the United States today, but in a press conference on August 10, 2017, President Donald Trump discounted this threat, citing instead the saber-rattling by North Korea as the most urgent threat facing the country and even withdrew American support from the Paris climate accord. In this regard, Shear reports that, President Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Paris climate accord, weakening efforts to combat global warming and embracing isolationist voices in his White House who argued that the agreement was a pernicious threat to the economy and American sovereignty.[footnoteRef:5] [5: Michael D. Shear (2017, June 1). Trump will withdraw U.S. from Paris climate accord. The New York Times. [online] available: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/climate/trump-paris-climate-agreement.html, p. 3.]

Nevertheless, President Obama and like-minded authorities suggest that hiding your head in the sand is not a viable response to global warming and that, Climate change is the greatest long-term threat facing the world, as well as a danger already manifesting itself as droughts, storms, heat waves and flooding.[footnoteRef:6] As noted in the introduction, some countries such as Russia and Greenland expect to actually benefit from the effects of global warming, but the implications for other areas of the globe are far less rosy as discussed further below. [6: As cited in Julie Hirschfield (2016, September 6). Obama on climate change: The trends are terrifying. The New York Times. [online] available: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/08/us/politics/obama-climate-change.html, p. 4.]

Effects of global warming on the Exclusive Economic Zone and Continent Shelf

Global warming and rising sea levels threaten the valuable U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and Continent Shelf.[footnoteRef:7] According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The EEZ extends no more than 200 nautical miles from the territorial sea baseline and is adjacent to the 12 nautical mile territorial sea of the U.S., including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and any other territory or possession over which the United States exercises sovereignty.[footnoteRef:8] The United States currently enjoys the following rights and benefits within the EEZ: [7: What is the EEZ? (2017). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. [online] available: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/eez.html., p. 2.] [8: What is the EEZ?, p. 2.]

Jurisdiction as provided for in international and domestic laws with regard to the establishment and use of artificial islands, installations, and structures, marine scientific research, and the protection and preservation of the marine environment;

Sovereign rights for the purpose of exploring, exploiting, conserving and managing natural resources, whether living and nonliving, of the seabed and subsoil and the superjacent waters and with regard to other activities for the economic exploitation and exploration of the zone, such as the production of energy from the water, currents and winds; and,

Other rights and duties provided for under international and domestic laws.[footnoteRef:9] [9: Note: Under certain U.S. fisheries laws, suh as the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, the term \"exclusive economic zone\" is defined as having an inner boundary that is coterminous with the seaward (or outer) boundary of each of the coastal states. While its outer limit is the same as the EEZ on NOAA charts, its inner limit is coterminous with the coastal states\' boundary at 3 nautical miles, except for Texas, western Florida, and Puerto Rico, which claim a 9 nautical mile belt. What is the EEZ?, p. 2.]

The geographic limits of the EEZ are depicted in Figure 4 below.

Figure 4. The U.S. exclusive economic zone

Source: https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/eez.jpg

As can be readily discerned from the map in Figure 4 above, many low-lying Pacific islands and coastal regions will be adversely affected from the rising sea levels associated with global warming. In sum, as sea levels rise, there is the potential for territories in the EEZ in the South China Sea including the Maldives, Tuvalu and the Solomon Islands to become submerged, essentially disappearing from the face of the earth.[footnoteRef:10] Likewise, the Kiribati, the Maldives, and the Marshall Islands are similarly threatened.[footnoteRef:11] As Schmidt points out, Island nations may be beautiful, but their isolation makes them vulnerable to outside forces that increasingly threaten their survival. Rising sea levels linked to global warming could submerge some altogether.[footnoteRef:12] Indeed, Tuvalu island, located in the West Pacific, is just around 16 feet above sea level at present, and rising sea levels could make the island uninhabitable within the foreseeable future, an outcome that also awaits other Pacific islands such as the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tokelau.[footnoteRef:13] [10: Venkat Lokanthan (2013, January-March). Imagining Asia in 2030: Trends, Scenarios and Alternatives. Indian Foreign Affairs Journal, vol. 8, no. 1, p. 122.] [11: Kennedy Warne (2015, February 13). Will Pacific Island Nations Disappear as Seas Rise? Maybe Not.… READ MORE

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