Term Paper on "Who Will Win the Republican Nomination for President in 2012?"

Term Paper 6 pages (1878 words) Sources: 5

[EXCERPT] . . . .

Republican nomination for President in 2012?

2012 elections mark a crucial moment in the history of the United States largely because of the momentum they entail. The last years have been tough both from an economic point-of-view as well as from a political one. The 2008 elections have seen the first African-American being elected in the highest and most powerful position of the state. At the same time though, the economic crisis that has marked the last years is, in the globalized world of today, without any real precedent.

Therefore, given the fact that at this moment, the Democratic Party is the one providing the incumbent, the 2012 presidential race, from the point-of-view of the Republican Party is crucial. In order to achieve a particular win for the White House, the Republican Party needs to address mostly the aspects that have been poorly addressed by the current Administration. More precisely, these include the promises made in 2008 concerning job creation, a better wealth fare system, among others.

First and foremost, it has to be taken into account the fact that in the 2012 presidential race, there is the political clash that exists between two different political beliefs. In this sense, while the Democrats have a more social nature, the Republicans tend to provide more liberal solutions for particular problems of the economy. At the moment however, given the economic crisis that the United States is yet to surpass with Democratic economic measures, it may be that the political beliefs and economic approaches to play a more significant role in the 2012 elections. In terms of the nominations from the Republican side, it is very difficult to assign a clear cut winner for the nomination in particular because, as opposed to previous election nominations, there is no clear cut candidate that can offer better solutions to the current economic downfall and have the charisma to defend what has been in 2008 a historical victory for the American people and the American democracy, electing an African-American president.

In August 2012, the Republican Convention will name the candidate that will represent the Party in the November 2012 presidential elections. There are several significant contenders that have announced their candidacy for winning the nomination of the Republican Party. These include Mr. Jon Huntsman, Mr. Mitt Romney, and Ms. Michele Bachmann. Both Mitt Romney and Huntsman are accredited with sufficient chances to take the nomination in part because of their political background and part because of their ongoing economic perspective. By comparison, Ms. Bachmann was chosen as case analysis for this paper because, similar to Mr. Obama in 2008, she is different because she is coming from a group that is often not sufficiently represented in high level politics, that of women. It is important so see whether this aspect may contribute to her nomination or not.

The general techniques behind the Republican or Democrat nominations for Presidency take into account a lot of variables. First and foremost, it is a matter of context. In a mathematical exercise done by the New York Times on November 1st, 2011 it is pointed out that the chances that one candidate or another to get the Republican party nomination depends on various aspects of the economy. For instance, if the GDP rises with 2.5%, there are more chances for Huntsman (71%) to win the elections as opposed to Romney who is credited with 58% of chances to win a battle with Barack Obama in this situation. (New York Times) Furthermore, in a situation in which the GDP would be 2.5% higher next year, Bachmann would not be credited with winning chances.

These types of statistics are taken into account largely because of two theoretical aspects that are strongly related to the mentality of nomination for presidency. As Momentum Triumphant pointed out, there are two essential elements to be taken into account. More precisely, one of the crucial aspects is related to the momentum of the elections. Whether it is related to the nomination period or whether it includes the election and the campaign period, the momentum is crucial largely because it outlines the main topics for discussion in the electoral year. In this sense, the major topic for discussion in the 2008 elections was the war In Iraq. Therefore, given the fact that the representative of the Republican Party was the one that waged that war and managed to win support for the expenses undergone in the war, the Democrats choice had to be an individual that would challenge the mere support of his ideas and theories concerning the war. Therefore, Obama managed to rally the support needed in order to ensure that a strong opposition for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan existed. Better said, Obama was the most suitable to take advantage of the weakness in the Republican side particularly because the theories advocated by the Democrats suited his personality and he managed to appropriate them.

A second important aspect is related to the actual front-runner of the race. At the moment, it is either to soon to note a front-runner or there isn't one that at the moment can draw the attention of the Convention and deliberate a choice. Lacking a front-runner is very important because on the one hand it provides numerous opportunities to candidates to submit their candidacy and on the other hand it fails to provide a unitary voice to the Convention and to the Republican Party as an entity. Even so, the primaries that will take place early next year can and will provide a significant view on the candidates and their positions both in their constituencies and at regional level.

Another major issue that has to be taken into account when deciding on the nomination from the republican side is related to the actual character of the nominated person. As seen in the 2008 elections, the media plays a crucial role in the way in which it manages to provide both the information and the coverage of the most important stories. More precisely, in 2008 Obama had only 14% of the news on his action to be clearly identified as negative in tone as opposed to McCain that had a 57% negative toned information disseminated on his activities and actions (Project for Excellence in Journalism) Furthermore, "For McCain, coverage began positively, but turned sharply negative with McCain's reaction to the crisis in the financial markets. As he took increasingly bolder steps to try and reverse the direction of the polls, the coverage only worsened. Attempts to turn the dialogue away from the economy through attacks on Obama's character did hurt Obama's media coverage, but McCain's was even more negative." (Project for Excellence in Journalism) Therefore, a crucial role in determining the most suitable candidate for the presidency is played by the personality and the political views that at the end cannot be shared even my all republicans. The media in this sense represents either a huge asset or an enemy.

In terms of issues related to the specific groups the candidates are part of, in this case, Bachmann being the representative of women in politics, this has not proven to be a major asset in the 2008 elections. More precisely, the presence of Sarah Palin did not provide a positive discrimination example especially from the point-of-view of the media coverage. In this sense, 'Coverage of Palin, in the end, was more negative than positive. In all, 39% of Palin stories carried a negative tone, while 28% were positive, and 33% were neutral. Contrary to what some suggested, little of the coverage was about Palin's personal life (5%)" (Project for Excellence in Journalism)

For the current run to nomination, the three contenders mentioned in the beginning have different chances to win the nomination. However, the aspects mentioned above concerning momentum, the lack of a front-runner, as well as the personal capacity of each contender to influence the media and the community to its advantage play key roles. Huntsman from this point-of-view is a very complex case in this sense. Given the fact that he held the position of U.S. Ambassador to China during the Obama administration may have a double effect. More precisely, "Right-wing Republicans (…) complain that Mr. Huntsman not only worked for Mr. Obama, but also called him "a remarkable leader" in a gushing letter thanking him for the job. As governor, he defended lots of causes considered heretical by many conservatives, including Mr. Obama's economic stimulus, civil unions for gay couples and a cap-and-trade scheme to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. He has also advocated allowing illegal immigrants brought to America as children to attend state universities on the same basis as native-born locals" (The Economist) From this point-of-view, Huntsman may have a leverage for moderate Republicans that can, one way or another, to sympathize with the political patterns advocated by the candidate, but surely, given the party line and the preponderance of right wing Republicans, Huntsman may be sanctioned on party lines for such a… READ MORE

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