Term Paper on "Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone"

Term Paper 5 pages (1790 words) Sources: 6

[EXCERPT] . . . .

Ozone

The Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone and the (Possible) Effects of Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change: A Review of Current Literature

Waugh et al. (2009) investigated the effects that climate change has on he recovery period and rate of stratospheric ozone. This team of researchers set out to modify an existing model, the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model, in order to investigate the differing effects climate change was likely to have on ozone recovery processes based on both temperature changes and transport systems within the global weather patterns (Waugh et al. 2009). Their primary methodology was the use of this model, as modified by an inclusion of current climate change data which has gone unaccounted for in previous studies and applications of the Goddard model (Waugh et al. 2009). The model itself was tested through this experimentation, and the researchers also tested the notion of whether 1980 or even 1960 levels of ozone were truly adequate measures for safe and restored levels of stratospheric ozone (Waugh et al. 2009).

The model showed that greenhouse gas induced climate change would cause vast differences in the recovery of stratospheric ozone based on the region of the globe over which certain areas of ozone existed (Waugh et al. 2009). Specifically, stratospheric cooling in some areas brought on by greenhouse gas buildup would increase the rate of ozone recovery, leading to a restoration of 1980 or even 1960 levels even before ozone stops beings significantly affected by the ozone depleting substances still in the atmosphere, while transport systems would make depletion a continuing fact for some areas of stratospheric ozone (Waugh et al. 2009). This provides a new understanding of the interactions between two environmentally destructive human forces, and most importantly identifies and underlines the difference between recovery and eliminating depletion (Waugh et al. 2009).

Lenton et al. (2009) set out to establish the effects that the observed stagnation of the Southern Ocean carbon dioxide sink would have on the future world climate. The rate of carbon absorption by the ocean has not kept pace with rising atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, but this fact had not previously been incorporated into predictive climate change models (Lenton et al. 2009). The researchers investigated deeper still by examining modeling the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and current levels on the ventilation rate of the Southern Ocean carbon sink, using observed data and an established coupled-climate-carbon-model to develop accurate predictions regarding changes to world climate and climate patterns.

The modeling research showed that the ventilation of Southern Ocean carbon is increased by stratospheric ozone depletion, which produce stronger winds that create greater disturbance on the surface of the water (Lenton et al. 2009). This establishes a link between stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change brought on by greenhouse gases, suggesting that the former exacerbates the latter and hinders efforts at correction (Lenton et al. 2009). The authors contend that climate change recommendations have been based on inaccurate models and incomplete data, and completed this research in an effort to change this (Lenton et al. 2009). Should further research validate these findings, this knowledge will prove invaluable in developing a more comprehensive view and understanding of climate change issues.

A new algorithm for estimating chlorine and bromine levels in the Antarctic Ocean was developed by Newman et al. (2006) and incorporated into a parametric model to determine the reasons for variance in the Antarctic ozone and predict future changes. The primary research questions addressed in the study included a determination of stratospheric ozone variance over the Antarctic and the possible factors and forces influencing ozone depletion and recovery in the area (Newman et al. 2006). This was geared to the overarching research question addressed, namely the establishment of a timeline for the recovery of stratospheric ozone in the Antarctic region based on the development of a new and more accurate model of the current effects on the ozone depletion and recovery rates that exist in the area and observed data (Newman et al. 2006).

This new model was found to accurately predict ninety-five percent of the variance observed in the Antarctic ozone hole, serving as a more accurate model than nay currently developed at assessing the actual recovery rate and potentials for change in the area of stratospheric ozone (Newman et al. 2006). By incorporating future predicted ozone-depleting substance levels, the authors predict that "full recovery" of the stratospheric ozone -- as defined by a return to 1980 levels -- will occur by 2068, with no statistically significant change until 2024 (Newman et al. 2006). This research is important both because it demonstrates a trend towards recovery with a concrete timeline, and also because it establishes a more accurate understanding of the interactions of various environmental and human systems.

Ravishankara et al. (2009) conducted research that is somewhat more tangentially related to the primary research question than the others, but that provides an interesting piece of complementary information to the primary question at hand. This study investigates the role that nitrous oxide plays in both climate change and ozone depletion (Ravishankara 2009). The researchers noted a lack of attention to this gas in the face of more virulent ozone depleting substances, and investigated its potential threat to ozone levels and climate change brought about by this lack of attention and continuing emission of the substance (Ravishankara et al. 2009). The researchers do not use a sophisticated and multi-factor computerized model in the analysis of their data, but rather use direct measurement and historical data as well as observed chemical reactions to describe nitrous oxide build-ups effect, and to equate this effect with current rates of global nitrous oxide emissions (Ravishankara et al. 2009).

This research concludes that nitrous oxide presents the greatest threat to stratospheric ozone recovery of any of the identified ozone depleting substances in the coming decades, primarily because it was not covered by the Montreal protocol and is simply in much wider use than other zone-depleting substances (Ravishankara et al. 2009). This research has direct implications for future stratospheric ozone recovery periods and through a domino effect on climate change influenced by ozone levels (Ravishankara et al. 2009). There is also a great deal of immediate practical importance in these findings, as it suggest that ozone recovery rates could be increased by reductions in nitrous oxide emissions (Ravishankara et al. 2009).

Methods

Ravishankara et al. (2009) compared direct measurements of nitrous oxide, which is not covered by the Montreal protocol, with measurements of the ozone depleting substances that are covered by the Montreal protocol and posing a reduced threat to the stratospheric ozone due to a massive reduction in their use. Though not recognized as a significant ozone depleting substance, Ravishankara et al. (2009) calculated the ozone depleting power and rate of nitrous oxide using the Garcia and Solomon two-dimensional model, a model similar to others used for comparable calculations, with the result that nitrous oxide was found to be as ozone depleting as many HCFCs banned by the Montreal protocol. The methodology required both a measurement of nitrous oxide output and the use of modeling to determine the nitrous oxide's relative effects compared to other ozone depleting substances.

Newman et al. (2006) also utilized both measurement and modeling, though modeling was a more prominent methodology employed in this research and was, in fact, the source of much of the investigation undertaken in this research. The authors set out to create a more accurate model based on collected data of sea temperatures, and the methodology required for their predictions and stratospheric ozone recovery timelines included the creation of a new algorithm for use in a parametric model (Newman et al. 2006). Quantitative analysis of observed data led to a lack of compatibility with existing modeling methodologies, and so a new modeling methodology was developed that more accurately reflects and predicts the data measurements observed by the researchers (Newman et al. 2006).

Lenton et al. (2009) also develop a partially new model, utilizing a quantitative analysis of stratospheric ozone depletion and its effects on climate change in an existing coupled-climate-carbon-model to explain the observed stagnation of carbon absorption in the Southern Ocean despite rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. The model used was appropriate to the setting, and indeed increasing the appropriateness of this model and the fit of its predictions with observed data was one of the primary goals of the researchers (Lenton et al. 2009). As in Newman et al. (2006), observation of existing data and predictions revealed a discrepancy in the reflection of reality presented by previous models, and the methodology utilized in this research study explicitly and directly addressed this observed discrepancy (Lenton et al. 2009). The ultimate validity of the model developed and the findings of this study, however, will only come from repeated independent verifications of the model's reliability and applicability.

Waugh et al. (2009) also employed a previously established model, but towards a new purpose. Built on a large amount of observational data, the Goddard Earth Observing System has been… READ MORE

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