Term Paper on "North Korea President Bush"

Term Paper 5 pages (1991 words) Sources: 1+

[EXCERPT] . . . .

North Korea

President Bush was of the opinion that three countries were members of the 'Axis of Evil' and during his first term in office he took necessary efforts to neutralize or prevent any kind of threat or attack from Iraq. His second term as the President of Unite States is likely to see a greater emphasis to remove the perceived threat from the other two members of the Axis of Evil, which are Iran and N. Korea. North Korea is likely to be the greatest challenge posed to the U.S. foreign policy in the coming years. For too many years North Korea has remained on the back burner, but the recent developments make it necessary for the U.S. To initiate a stronger foreign policy effort on North Korea to remove threats to itself and its allies in the North Asian region. In the last five decades or so North Korea has developed a nuclear weapons research program by exploiting its own uranium and a pool of nuclear physicists available in the country. In spite of an agreement in 1994 whereby, North Korea agreed to stop the nuclear weapons research program, recent announcements have shown that it has paid scant respect to that agreement and has continued its development of nuclear weapons and is no longer on the threshold of a nuclear weapons program, but rather already possesses them. Coupled with its technical capacity in missile technology this gives it both the possession of nuclear weapons along with the delivery systems for it. (U.S. says North Korea may be ready to talk)

The North Korean claim to possess nuclear weapons appears to be true and the estimates are that it possesses six to eight nuclear warheads. This means that now there are nine countries in the world including the suspicions on Israel that possess nuclear weapon capabilities. The worry for the U.S. In particular and the world in general is that if North Korea is allowed to possess this capability it will not be long before many other countries soon attain the same nuclear capability. This would simply push up the possibility of nuclear war danger dramatically. These dangers would emanate from miscalculation, pre-emptive attacks, theft, a worldwide market for nuclear weapons and the possible use of nuclear weapons by terrorist groups. From a high of sixty five thousand nuclear weapons the world is down to about twenty thousand nuclear weapons. It is a wonder that the only occasions when they were used remain the atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki towards the end of World War Two. (The Nuclear Threat)

This may have been due to the fact that the U.S. And the Soviet did not use them at each other as it would have led to the destruction of both and maybe the world too. The other reason was that besides Britain and France, the other advanced countries that could have developed nuclear weapons capability chose not to do so as they were already under the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. It is this collapse of a system that prevented the spread of nuclear weapons and thereby the threat of a nuclear war by the accumulation of nuclear weapons capability by states that have leaders who have are both capable of using it at their whims and fancy as well as passing this technology on to countries or groups that are only interested in world anarchy that is the immediate challenge to the foreign policy of the U.S. And the country that is at the head of all this is North Korea. (The Nuclear Threat)

This threat becomes even more daunting when a look is taken at the economy of North Korea under Kim Jong IL; North Korea has hardly anything to offer the world in trade. What it does offer is missile technology and illegitimate drug trade. Estimates suggest that the country sells about five hundred and sixty million dollars worth of missile technology every year and Pakistan and Egypt are two of its main buyers. Illegal drugs bring it another hundred million dollars. North Korea is also believed to augment its coffers from the counterfeiting of U.S. dollars, which brings it another hundred million dollars. All this suggests that North Korea would only be too happy to sell nuclear technology should it feel a monetary pinch. (Tightening noose on North Korea: Pyongyang's missile, drug trade under scrutiny)

Given this scenario what are the options that remain with the U.S. To adopt in its foreign policy so that this threat is curtailed initially and them eliminated. The Bush administration has followed the diplomatic line in tackling the issue of North Korea and has clearly stated that it would like to work with the governments in Asia to try and get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program. (One Down, Two to Go. Democracy has come to Iraq. Is there hope for North Korea?) A military surgical strike is a possibility but this option is not under consideration for two reasons. Even if Defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld feels that the U.S. is capable of fighting on two fronts, meaning Iraq and North Korea, it will have two negative impacts. In the first place the North Korean retaliation in the form of artillery and missile fire on South Korea would lead to heavy casualties, both for the South Koreans and the U.S. forces there. Secondly both Japan and Korea are not in favor of a military solution and it would not be wise to displease two of America's strongest supporters in the region. The North Koreans are aware of this and as long as they do not pose a direct and immediate threat to the U.S. Or its allies, they believe that they do not face any military threat from the U.S. So it comes down to diplomacy and talks. (U.S. weighs grim N. Korea options)

There is feeling that negotiations and talks with North Korea would not succeed and would rather show a caving in resolve of the U.S. As the military option is ruled out so is the option of economic strangling of North Korea as punishment for not giving up its nuclear program. Japan, South Korea and China the major players in the region and the countries involved in the 1994 agreement with Korea along with Russia and the U.S. And are dead against any such move. The Chinese fear that such action would cause a refugee influx into China which it would find extremely difficult to cope with. Without the support of these nations any attempt of economic measures would be futile. In addition to this North Korea has clearly stated that it will consider any attempt to interdict its vessels on the high seas as an act of war and this would only mean that the military option following the economic one and therefore the economic option is also ruled out. Chinese cooperation is essential to the success of any move with North Korea. China holds a key in that it controls the flow of oil into North Korea and has used this leverage once to force North Korea to the table for talks by cutting oil flow for three days. Therefore, it is essential not only to ensure the cooperation of China, Japan and South Korea, but also make them share a greater responsibility in the burden of reducing and eliminating the nuclear weapons potential of North Korea. (Tightening noose on North Korea: Pyongyang's missile, drug trade under scrutiny)

So talks and negotiations appear the best way out of this situation and this has gradually set in as the policy that the U.S. is likely to adopt. The Bush administration has made it very clear that these negotiations will be on the basis that there will be no reward for any kind of action on the North Korean part that shows that it is not willing to restrain itself. In addition any provision for food and energy aid from the United States side will be only offered once North Korea shows clear intent of dropping its nuclear weapons program. This is because President Bush clearly indicates that the U.S. will not be blackmailed in its foreign policy. Still it may be a good idea to get talks started as there are several benefits that could come out of it. Talks give the Bush administration time to sort out the Iraq issue so that more focus could be given to the North Korean problem. In addition it also makes the South Koreans feel that an attempt is being made to resolve the issue. This softer tone of the Bush administration has not had a good response from the North Koreans and they have criticized the offer of energy and food aid after nuclear disarmament and insisted that negotiations should begin on a more equal footing.

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