Research Proposal on "Impact of SUV's on the Economy"
Research Proposal 5 pages (1308 words) Sources: 5 Style: APA
[EXCERPT] . . . .
microeconomic factors including inflation, SUV collateral or trade-in value, significant oil and gas price fluctuations as quantified by the average U.S. price of a gallon of gasoline, and the impact of automaker incentives on the sales of SUV sales throughout the last fourteen months. These microeconomic factors are captured in quantitative form and analyzed using a series of statistical analysis routines from the Statistical Software Package for the Social Science (SPSS). A methodology based on the use of R.L. Polk vehicle sales data in addition to use of data from the AutoData database (2008) and the Global Insight Databases (2008) which is an information service from J.D. Power. The Monthly Review (2008) is used for the specific fuel pricing used in this analysis as well. Using R.L. Polk data the high gas consumption cars will be the mid-size SUV segment. The dynamics of this market where body-on-frame vs. unibody construction make it ideal for being a significant independent variable in the analysis. For purposes of completing the R.L. Polk vehicle analysis these are the models by each type of SUV:Body on Frame SUVs (more towing power, less fuel efficient) included in the Analysis
CHEVROLET - TRAIL BLAZER
CHEVROLET - TRAILBLAZER EXT
CHEVROLET - TRAILBLAZER SS
FORD - EXPLORER
GMC - ENVOY XL DENALI
KIA - SORENTO
NISSAN - PATHFINDER
TOYOTA - 4 RUNNER
Unibody SUVs (less towing power, more fuel efficient) included in the Analysis
CHEVROLET - EQUINOX
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HONDA - PILOT
HYUNDAI - SANTA FE
NISSAN - MURANO
SUBARU - B9 TRIBECA
TOYOTA - HIGHLANDER
Methodology
R.L. Polk's Insight database (2008) was first used to gather the last fourteen months (from June, 2007 to July, 2008) of new vehicle sales and registrations for the two groups of SUVs, the median U.S. gas price using the Monthly Energy Review (2008). Using the data contained in the R.L. Polk Insight database (2008) and the J.D Power PIN database (2008) a series of data tables were constructed and analyzed. The data set of financing variables was specifically from JD Power's PIN Financing Database. Results of queries into each of these databases were extracted into Microsoft Excel files and then imported in SPSS Version 15 for Windows.
As defined the null and alternative hypotheses are presented below:
Ho: There is a negative relationship between high oil price and car sales and leasing value.
H1: There is a positive relationship between high oil price and car sales and leasing value.
Initial Results
The data sets were entered into SPSS Version 15 and a correlational analysis was completed computing distances between variables using Pearson Correlation to measure similarities. The resulting Proximity Matrix is shown below:
Rescaled Reversed Absolute Correlation between Vectors of Values
TOTAL MIDSIZE SUV UNIT SALES Average U.S. Gas Price Total Down Percent Financed Total Down (%) Trade in (%) Type of Sale Cash (%) Type of Sale Finance (%) Type of Sale Lease (%) Type of Sale Purchase (%) Vehicle Price Less Customer Cash Rebate TOTAL MIDSIZE SUV UNIT SALES 1.000.743.674.756.741.399.749.352.464.464.381 Average U.S. Gas Price.743 1.000.856.799.797.236.423.903.487.487.737 Total Down.674.856 1.000.011.010.711.482.959.566.566.867% Financed.756.799.011 1.000.000.692.561 1.000.650.650.739 Total Down (%).741.797.010.000 1.000.684.561.985.642.642.755 Trade in (%).399.236.711.692.684 1.000.824.656.964.964.886 Type of Sale Cash (%).749.423.482.561.561.824 1.000.900.146.146.562 Type of Sale Finance (%).352.903.959 1.000.985.656.900 1.000.398.398.589 Type of Sale Lease (%).464.487.566.650.642.964.146.398 1.000.000.438 Type of Sale Purchase (%).464.487.566.650.642.964.146.398.000 1.000.438 Vehicle Price Less Customer Cash Rebate.381.737.867.739.755.886.562.589.438.438 1.000 This is an absolute dissimilarity matrix
From this initial correlation analysis using Pearson's Correlation Matrix for testing similarities the data suggests that consumers continue to purchase unibody SUVs, putting less money down and leasing to get the lower payment so their budgets can cushion the wide gas price fluctuations occurring during the 14-month period of analysis.
Next a partial correlation analysis was completed using two-tailed test of significance controlling for U.S. gas price, using the variables of total midsize SUV unit sales, average U.S. gas price, total down payment, percent financed, total down payment amount, percent financed, total down… READ MORE
Quoted Instructions for "Impact of SUV's on the Economy" Assignment:
“Here's is an outline I have so far, you can use it or not depending if you think of something better or not:
Impact of oil prices on suvs
I. Rising oil prices
A. Diminishing Supply
B. Impact of Automakers
II. Declining SUV sales
A. Previous Highest Sellers
B. Present Sales
III. Alternatives
A. Hybrids
B Mass Transit
Instructions for preparing this assignment are as follows:
1. Each paper is to be an analysis on the recent economic events or economic reports from the supplemental resources or references. The focus of this assignment is to relate and analyze current events to basic principles of microeconomics covered in this course. It is not acceptable to just regurgitate statistics. The student*****s paper should indicate that he/she has a clear understanding of theory learned in class and its application/operation in the *****˜outside world. If direct quotes are used (not contained in the article), appropriate footnotes, endnotes, or parenthetical citations must accompany the quotes. Since a part of your paper will come from published sources, Internet references, etc, there should be sufficient evidence of where the information for your paper originated. Paper length should be a few pages - short enough to qualify as a commentary but long enough to adequately address the subject. Typically, six to eight double spaced pages are sufficient. Papers are graded on quality of content, not quantity. Standard APA English rules apply and clarity is important to your grade.
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