Thesis on "LNG Process Risk Safety Modeling and Consequence Analysis"

Thesis 20 pages (5099 words) Sources: 150

[EXCERPT] . . . .

LNG Process Risk Safety: Modeling and Consequence Analysis

The Risk Assessment/Analysis

Checklist

A checklist is made up of guidelines that are placed in questions or bullets in order to assist a given methodological health and safety (EHS) risks analysis (Fthenakis and Tramell, 2003).It is used in the stimulation of group discussion and thinking. The checklist is appropriately developed by a team of experts who have a prior knowledge of hazard analysis. The checklist is then used in the process of risk assessment is includes a specified list of items that are specified using a group of codes, industry safety practices and regulations. The developed checklist is important in the LNG process by enabling the conducting of self -- appraisal as well as auditing of the LNG process and facilities. An analysis of the technique reveals that the checklist method has the disadvantage of heavily influencing the accuracy and the quality of LNG risk assessment (EASH,2010)

What-if Checklist

The what-if check-list is a rather broad-based technique of hazard assessment that combines elements of creative thinking of a team of specialists using a methodological focus of a checklist that is prepared (OSHA, 2010). A selected review team is then represented using a wide range of selected disciplines such as safety. The special team is then given the basic information on the specific hazards of materials, the process technology, equipment design, procedure, incident experiment, a review of previous hazards and instrumentation control. A thorough field is also conducted when the process in operation.

The selected review team then examines the process methodologically from the time of receipt of raw materials up to the time the final product is delivered to the intended destination. At every step, the group then generates in a collective approach a listing of all the what-if questions that concerns the hazards as well as the safety of the entire operation. After the review team has completed the listing process of forming spontaneously generated questions, it applies a systematic process of preparing a checklist in order to simulate the additional questions. Answers are then generated for each question. A consensus is then derived for each question and answer. Recommendations then follow.

The application of what if analysis in the context of LNG process lies in the process of hazard identification (Woodward and Pitblado, 2010). It is categorized as a quantitative technique of risk assessment (Bridges,2008). In our research data, it has been used in different situations such of LNG risk assessment. It can be used in the assessment of LNG fires and explosions scenarios as indicated by Biao et al. (2010).

The HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) Method

The HAZOP concept is on the basis on the principle that it is better to employ a team approach in the process of hazard analysis since it helps in the identification of more problems as compared to when just an individual's work separately then combines their results (Acutech,2009).

Extant literature has discussed this method as indicated in the works of Mannan (2005) and CCPS (2008).The technique is applicable to various LNG processes. More specifically, it can be used on onshore LNG production units, LNG reception, and ship transfer and at the regasification terminals (Woodward and Pitblado, 2010). At its simplest form, the method can effectively be used in challenging the detailed design comprising a wide range of various deviations from the otherwise normal operations as well as to confirm the level of design conformance with standard safety requirements. It can also be used in the testing of whether the safeguards that are in place are sufficient. The noted deviations could be mechanical ones such as corrosion, less temperature or more pressure (Woodward and Pitblado, 2010).They could also be human errors or a combination of events such as faults in the control system caused by a power failure. A sample of hazard identification for LNG is shown in the Table 1 below.

Table 1: HAZOP of an LNG facility

Source: Woodward and Pitblado (2010)

Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)

This is a methodology employed in the analysis of the potential reliability problems at an early stage of a product development lifecycle when it is still easier to initiate appropriate actions intended at overcoming the issues involved and thereby improving the reliability of the product under design (Crow, 2002).The method is used in the identification of the potential failure modes and in the determination of the effects of the failure modes on the operation of a given product such as LNG so as to identify the necessary failure mitigation actions. A crucial element of this method is the anticipation of what may go wrong with a certain product. An extensive list of all the potential failure modes is formulated by the development team. The use of FMEA in the design process helps engineers in the designing product that are failure proof and reliable. They therefore become safe and pleasing to the customers. The FMEA process captures all the historical information to be used in the future improvements of a certain product (Crow, 2002).

The use of FMEA in the LNG process of identifying mechanical and electrical failure modes as pointed out by Woodward and Pitblado (2010).

Site Selection

The site for this analysis was selected from both sea and land-based LNP storage facilities. The process of risk management involves the analysis of all aspects of potential loss. The process of managing the risk. The process of LNG site selection must use community engagement in order to identify the perfect site that must have low social and environmental sensitivity as pointed out by a 2005 BHP Billiton report (BHP,2005).

Analysis regarding site selection

An analysis of a 2005 BHP Billiton Sustainability Report 2005 reveal that the role of community and their participation is integral to the process of effectively selecting an LNG site. This is evident from the fact that in the Pilbara LNG site selection (BHP,2005),the community preferred the site and 90% of them believed that the project would benefit the area through the creation of jobs, services and infrastructure. The process of selecting an LNP site should therefore include several stakeholders and the community is the biggest contributor. The risk analysis involves the analysis of the potential loss as well as the management of the potential losses. The management of the risks is the main responsibility of the process of management of a given project. Quantitative risk analysis (QRA), which is a process of providing the particular management with various event scenarios as well as the quantification of the magnitude as well likelihood of the premeditated potential losses as pointed out by Woodward and Pitblado (2010). The emphasis is however placed on the specific accidents incurred upon the initiation of a venture. These include:

1. Market risk-which are the risks that occur whenever the demand declines for a particular product

2. The currency risks-which are the losses that are a result of participating in foreign purchases and sales as a result of unfavorable shift in the level of currency exchange.

3. Property rights risks-which are the losses that associate with the taxation imposed by foreign government on investments as a result of high taxation, low incentives and upholding of contracts.

4. The natural losses as a result of hurricanes, tornadoes as well as earthquakes.

These are the risks associated with natural events.

5. The business interruption risk -- which are losses associated with the production as a result of serious mechanical failure and other factors such as political instability

Losses by accidents; these involve losses caused by incidents such as ship collision as well as grounding, operating mistakes, process equipment loss as a result of containment by corrosion as well as random failures of components.

6. Deliberate sabotage as well as acts of terrorism-This form of losses does fall outside the usual random event distribution. These losses pose serious threat to a business as well as the general community.

7. Community benefit to risk ration: which is a ratio which gauges if the investment is favorable to the community

8. Litigation potential: which is a measure of how reasonable the demands that are placed on a particular company and how they will injure the various parties that are to be compensated.

9. Measures aimed at reducing the frequency of accidents; which is the addition of speed limits, the addition of barriers and the increasing the frequency of equipment inspection

10. Measures aimed at reducing the consequences of accidents- which is the provision of protective equipment such as gloves, safety glasses as well as fire resistant clothing in order to ensure that the inventory of hazardous materials is reduces. This also includes the offsetting of the plant from residents and the addition of water spray deluge systems.

11. Insurance-this is the measure how much insurance one should buy and the fair price for obtaining that insurance.

Hazard

A physical situation that has a potential for causing human injury as well as damage to property and environment

Major Hazard

This is a term for a… READ MORE

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