Research Proposal on "Iran's Opposition After June 2008 Election"

Research Proposal 6 pages (1740 words) Sources: 10

[EXCERPT] . . . .

Iran's Opposition After June 2008 Election

The Iranian republic represents one of the most interesting and at the same time controversial case study for the international relations science. This is largely since the Ahmadinejad Administration has most of the time been criticized for its political and policy planning and choices. As opposed to the international context, the Administration is considered to lack any sense of cooperation with the international community in relation to the constant threats of nuclear war.

From this point-of-view, it is important to consider the role of the democratic forces in the country. In particular, these refer to the opposition parties that activate in the society and on the political arena. They are crucial because their presence can to a certain extent control the activity of the government and its leaders. The opposition parties play a crucial role in every democracy as they offer the equilibrium in the policy process.

The Iranian state can hardly be considered a democratic state. However, the presence of the opposition parties triggers at least in appearance the democratic process of majority and minority. The 2008 elections however proved that regardless of the role of the leading party and the opposition, the democratic process cannot be performed unless the rules are respected. In this sense, the elections were considered to be a fraud. The parliamentary elections represented an important moment for the majority in the Tehran parliament.

The major problem however was the question on the large number of disqualified reformist candidates (Siamdoust, 2008). The general image on the 2008 elections resembled hope and conviction on the belief that the Reformers would eventually have a place in the new parliamentarian structure. This is what justified the important 60% turnover at the elections. Even so, the result was disappointing for many policy analysts. In this sense, "it's not only the results that are shocking, but also the way they have been announced (...) before the counting was even complete -- that the United Principalists had won 71% of the seats" (Siamdoust, 2008). From this point-of-view, the elections were considered a clear challenge for any type of democratic process.

There are several key parties in Iran which can be considered to represent the opposition forces in the country. They are generically labeled as reformists because they stand in clear opposition to the conservator party of president Ahmadinejad. These include the Green Party, .

The Green Party, according to their official internet site, "is a political party founded to defend Iran's environment, particularly its forests, soil, air and water resources. (...) in view of the increasing environmental destruction in Iran, we believe that a Green Party is required on the Iranian political stage. In addition to proposing environmental policies, the Green Party of Iran advocates a democratic political and economic system for Iran" (the Green Party in Iran, 2010). In this sense, it can be noted that the party focuses clearly on the change of the system in Iran in such a way as to become democratic. Given the nature of the elections in 2008 and the clear criticism for the current administration and Parliament, it is fair to say that the party is in stark opposition with the Ahmadinejad administration.

Another important opposition political party in Iran is that of former prime minister Mausavi. He is one of the most representative figures of the Iranian opposition particularly after he lost the presidential elections in favor of Ahmadinejad. Even in that occasion, the former prime minister accused the current administration of having manufactured the results and negatively influenced the electorate.

Another important figure of the Iranian opposition is that of Mehdi Karoubi, as well a former candidate for the presidency in Iran in 2009. Similarly to the beliefs of Mausavi, Karoubi also pressed on the note of the 2009 elections being illegal. Further more, until 2010, Karoubi did not recognize the authority of president Ahmadinejad (Deraklshi, 2010). His point-of-view matches clearly those of the other leaders of the opposition, stressing that despite the recognition of the president, the policy promoted by Ahmadinejad cannot be tolerated and under no circumstances would the opposition accept a continuation of a hardline administration.

The relations between the conservative leaders and those of the opposition can be characterized as being tense. In this sense, there are constant clashes between the two sides. These do not necessarily result in political confrontations, but rather in practical, physical confrontations. One example of such clashes relate to the continuous debate over the issue of democracy as opposed to religious-based system of rule. More precisely, while the reformists consider the future of the country should be based on the democratic principles of the rule of law, the conservatives view this aspect as one defying the rule of the religious sharia. Thus, in the wake of the 2009 presidential elections, "at least 20 opposition figures have been arrested since Sunday, including three senior advisers to opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi, his brother-in-law and a sister of Iranian Nobel Peace Prize winner Shirin Ebadi" (Hafezi and Derakhsh, 2009).

The Green Movement represented the initiative started after the 2009 elections to signify the need and desire of the Iranians to remove current president from power. Better said, it was aimed at creating a certain unity among all political leaders who were not representative of the conservator party. The leaders mentioned above are key figures for this movement. An additional figure representative for this movement has become Agha-Soltan, a 26-year-old woman who was killed during the street raids that took place a week after the 2009 elections. Even though it was considered to have been a clear accident, the woman came to symbolize the Iranian people's struggle for a new governmental system (Nazila, 2009). The death of the woman was maintained as a symbol of a new revolution, that of mentality and social unity, according to media sources.

Moussavi is by far the most visible leader of the opposition. In this respect he holds most debate subjects and most criticism and constrain. However, he is considered by the majority of the population to be the one able to bring the change in Iran. At the same time, there are aspects of the Ahmadinejad administration he agrees upon. One of the most important one is related to the issue of the international sanctions as envisaged by the international community and the U.S. In this sense, all parties in Iran fear the use of international sanctions to prevent further nuclear activities in Iran. In this sense, Mousavi as well as other opposition leaders content that no sanctions must be applied to Iran because they only reflect a negative stand on the Iranian people (Gharib, 2010). On the other hand however, the Green Movement has often accused the Iranian administration of having used the nuclear potential of the country to bad ends.

The strength of the regime at this moment is rather difficult to ascertain. On the one hand, it benefits from a strong grip on the situation in the country, especially after the end of the contested elections protests around the country. Despite the fact that there is a constant struggle for democratic principles in the country, the administration is in complete control (Sadjadpou, 2010) the Ayatolah hold complete power over the state in general in terms of the spiritual aspects. In terms of military coordination the Revolutionary Guards hold the power. Better said, the relation with the opposition is tense. At the same time, the Revolutionary Guards also hold a major role in the republic. Thus, "analysts differ widely on what the future holds for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. Some, like Alfoneh, suggest the guard's rising political and economic clout has put it in a position to challenge the clerical establishment" (Bruno, 2009). From this point-of-view it is important to consider the fact that the force ratio is split in the Iranian society. There are constant frictions between the actors on the political stage in particular which determine a volatile situation in Iran.

The power of the opposition is rather dim. There are several shortcomings which determine their lack of concrete influence in the society. First, this is largely due to the fact that during the manifestations for the 2009 elections, people were called to rally against the outcome of the elections and the manifestations were eventually forbidden and blooded. This led to the belief that the opposition does not have the necessary capacity and strength to influence the current administration (Sadjadpou, 2010).

Secondly, there is the issue of unity inside the Iranian opposition. Thus, it has been argued that the forces of the opposition fail to consider unifying in a power coalition force that can determine the downfall of the regime. More precisely, the popular belief is that "The reality is that even the smallest united leadership that has been formed in a few instances in the last few months, not only has not been able to get the popular support, but even some of the components of these united… READ MORE

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