Term Paper on "Future Promising or Foreboding"

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As Davidson states in Optimism in an Era of Uncertainty (2004); "In this time of high global tensions and economic uncertainty, is maintaining an optimistic outlook possible or even warranted? I believe it is. " (Davidson, 2004)

Global warming and climate change

One of the greatest threats that face humanity and which suggests an extremely pessimistic future is the issue of global warming.

The recent scientific consensus that emissions caused by human activity are the direct cause of this crisis and that it could lead to our demise, is certainly a cause for pessimism about the future. "The world's scientists... gave their starkest warning yet that a failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions will bring devastating climate change within a few decades." (Worse than we thought)

However at the same time this crisis is in many ways also a cause for optimism about the future. The reason for this view is that as humanity and different nations become more aware of the importance of the dangers of global warming and climate change, so they become more unified. In other words people are generally becoming more aware of the fact that the only way to deal with problems of this magnitude in an adequate way is to work together - and this cooperation is a factor that leads to a more optimistic assessment of the future. "We share the need to address mounting ecological challenges, such as climate change, that threaten our collective well-being and even survival." (What future will we choose?)

This sense of mutual cooperation in the face of extreme threat has also extended to other areas in recent years, such as the greater recognition of world poverty and aspects of social polarization and discrimination in the world. There is a general awareness, which has also been fostered by communication systems like the Internet, of the problems that we all share on the planet. There is a growing sense of the need "...to reconcile development with the environment in order to pass on a healthy world to future generations and to meet the basic needs of present generations for adequate access to water, housing, healthcare, education and jobs." (What future will we choose?) While the present age is certainly one of trauma, conflict and social inequalities, yet many people see this not in negative terms but rather as a period of transition or change towards a better and not a worse future. All the crises in the world are in a strange way bringing more people together in terms of a common awareness of the problems of humanity and the need to do something collectively about it.

Energy resources

The energy shortage and the dependency on oil is a central factor in world economy and have an often negative influence on international politics. The battle for control of energy resources has always been a central concern in our age and it is also one that has been suggested could lead to a future of war for humanity.

On the other hand are many indications that the need for energy could also lead to positive developments in the future. This refers to new technological developments and to the envisaged decentralization of energy and the challenges that this poses for the future. A commentator on future trends, Jeremy Rifkin, states that the "...future energy regime will be decentralized and decarbonized." (Wagner, 2004) This is also linked to the drive towards the greater democratization of the world through various modern technological developments like the Internet. In other words, experts like Rifkin state that instead of leading to division and conflict, energy resources will be controlled in the future not by large corporate entities but will be decentralized to be more equitably shared by all. According to Rifkin, "Every auto, home, and office will have its own fuel cell, and everyone will be on their own." (Wagner, 2004) the future scenario that he paints is certainly one that is optimistic and in which there are shared resources and opportunities motivated by world wide communication. Rifkin therefore envisages a "Third Industrial Revolution," where, "Decentralized communication and distributed generation of energy will force us to change other institutions [as we move] from a fuel economy to a market economy to a dispersed economy." (Wagner, 2004) This view suggests a future democratic situation of economic and energy resource sharing, modeled on the internet example of networking and community cooperation. This prediction is a far cry from the negative future projections which see only greater division and conflict in the world over resources. I feel that we too easily accept the media- driven views that stress the nataive and not the positive aspects of future developments.

In addition to this optimism about future energy resources there are also hopeful signs of technical breakthroughs and alternate energy systems for the future. In opposition to the pessimistic view of the decline of energy in the future, there is a view that suggests that; "There is a world-wide boom in investment in green technology already under way... Although the consensus view is that the sunlight-powered future won't be taking over until 2050, I'd place an optimistic bet that one of the many smart ideas being researched now will turn out to be an unforeseen winner much earlier." (World Question Centre)

Communications

The advent of the Internet is certainly one of the main reasons for projecting an optimistic vision of the future. This aspect has already been mentioned as a great facilitator of innovation and, more importantly, of cooperation between peoples. The Internet is not only a means of communicating problems that can lead to cooperative solutions- but it has also led to the disappearance of barriers between nations and countries to a great degree; thereby reducing areas of misunderstanding between people. The following quotation illustrates this spirit and feeling about the Internet that bodes well for an increase in communication and cooperation in the world.

Technology has advanced so significantly in the last decade, and many in the generation of kids, high school age and younger, are so fluent in every aspect of the technology that they have moved beyond being participants stimulated by the technology to being creators, creating both technology and content, collaborating and sharing every aspect of their lives, their opinions and their causes across borders that, to them, are increasingly invisible.

World Question Centre)

Science and technology

The field of science and technology is another area that can be discussed in terms of positive and negative futures. On the one hand the growth of technology has been blamed for many of the ills in the world - including the present threat of climate change, pollution and many other negative aspects. Industrialization, which is associated with scientific and technological development, has also been linked to the growth of the "urban wasteland" and the loss of existential meaning in modern life.

Instead of improving the human condition, technology has become the harbinger of nihilism because only the pure ratiocination promulgated by technological rationality is given credence. This is not to suggest that techniques per se are necessarily dehumanizing but that the technological world-view may justify the destruction of the environment and severely restrict human cognition.

Murphy & Pardeck, 1986, p. xv)

While there is a certain degree of… READ MORE